Stagflation or a "Run Hot" Economy?

The Next 90 Days Will Shape Positioning Into Year-End.
Between now and Labor Day, incoming data should provide a clearer answer to one question that will influence market performance into the second half of the year: Are we moving toward stagflation or a still-resilient, inflationary expansion? That distinction has direct implications for positioning and risk.
Today's Alpha webinar is built to help you evaluate that shift as it develops and connect it to portfolio decisions.

Start Your Alpha Subscription
Market Context
The Setup
The S&P 500 has produced solid gains so far this year. Growth has remained relatively resilient, and market expectations are leaning toward a continued "run hot" environment. At the same time, several variables are evolving.
The inflation impulse tied to the Iran conflict, along with potential supply chain disruptions, is likely to become more visible in the data over the coming months. How that data develops — particularly the interaction between growth and inflation — will influence asset performance across equities, bonds, and commodities.
If Inflation Stays Elevated While Growth Slows
Both stocks and bonds could face pressure. Stagflation risk rises and diversification may become less effective.
If Growth Holds While Inflation Stays Firm
Certain cyclical and real asset exposures may continue to perform well. Selective risk-taking may be supported.

The challenge is identifying which environment is taking shape early enough to adjust positioning.
Today's Session
What You'll Get in Today's Alpha Webinar
In this session, we introduce a "Stagflation vs. Run Hot Summer Scorecard" — a framework designed to track key data points over the next three months and interpret what they imply for markets.
Growth Reports
Identify the economic reports between now and Labor Day that are most relevant for assessing growth trajectory.
Inflation Data
Break down the inflation data that tends to matter beyond headline CPI and Core PCE.
Key Thresholds
Outline the levels and thresholds that would suggest a shift toward stagflation or continued expansion.
Live Scorecard Use
Demonstrate how to use this scorecard as new data is released throughout the summer months.

The focus is on creating a structured way to monitor conditions and translate macro developments into positioning decisions.
Why It Matters
Why This Matters Now
Markets currently reflect an expectation of continued resilience. That creates a situation where outcomes may not be evenly balanced.
If Growth Remains Firm
Positioning can stay constructive and selective risk-taking may be supported. Current market expectations are validated.
If Growth Weakens
While inflation remains elevated, downside risks could increase and diversification may become less effective than expected.
Timing Is Critical
Once a shift is widely recognized, a significant portion of the market move may already be underway.
This webinar is designed to help you evaluate that transition as it unfolds — not after the fact.
Subscriber Benefits
What Subscribers Receive
With access to this webinar, subscribers receive everything needed to monitor the macro environment and apply it to portfolio decisions throughout the summer.
Full Session & Replay
The complete live session and replay so you can revisit the analysis at any time.
Summer Scorecard Framework
The complete "Summer Scorecard" framework for tracking key data points over the next three months.
Detailed Slide Deck
A detailed slide deck for reference and reuse in client conversations and portfolio reviews.
Ongoing Context
Continued context in future Alpha updates as new data is released throughout the summer.

The objective is to provide a repeatable process for interpreting macro data and linking it to portfolio positioning.
Access the Webinar
This Alpha webinar takes place today at 1:30 PM ET.
When
Today — March 21 — at 1:30 PM ET.
Who
Access is available to Alpha subscribers. Start your subscription to attend live and receive the full framework and materials.
What You Get
Full session, replay, Summer Scorecard, slide deck, and ongoing updates — all included with your subscription.

Don't miss today's session. The webinar begins at 1:30 PM ET. Subscribe now to attend live and receive the complete Summer Scorecard framework.
About the Service
Why Alpha
Sevens Report Alpha is designed for investors and advisors who want to go beyond daily market commentary. It focuses on idea generation, positioning frameworks, and forward-looking analysis that can be applied in portfolios and client discussions.
The Daily Sevens Report
Explains what is happening in markets — the essential daily briefing that keeps you informed.
Alpha Goes Further
Focuses on how to interpret that information and apply it to real portfolio decisions.
Alpha Is Built on Two Components
Bi-Weekly Deep-Dive Reports
Covering key macro and market themes with the depth needed to inform positioning decisions.
Live Webinars & Frameworks
Alternating live webinars supported by detailed slide decks and actionable frameworks.
Advisor Applications
How Advisors Use Alpha
Subscribers often use Alpha as part of their client communication and portfolio process. The frameworks and webinar materials are designed to be practical and immediately applicable.
Client Conversations
Structuring client conversations around current macro risks and opportunities with clearly defined frameworks that build confidence.
Positioning Decisions
Supporting positioning decisions with structured analysis that goes beyond headline commentary and surface-level interpretation.
Differentiated Insights
Providing differentiated insights that extend beyond headline analysis and help advisors stand out in client relationships.
Prospect Engagement
Engaging prospects with timely and relevant market perspectives that demonstrate depth of analysis and forward-looking thinking.

The webinar slide decks are designed to be practical and adaptable for direct client use.
Tools & Resources
Alpha Webinars and Slide Decks
Each Alpha webinar is built with usability in mind. The materials are designed not just for the moment, but as lasting tools for investment decisions and client communication.
Structured Replay
A structured presentation available for replay, so you can revisit the analysis as market conditions evolve and new data arrives.
Updatable Frameworks
Frameworks that can be updated as new data becomes available — designed to remain relevant throughout the monitoring period.
Client-Ready Visuals
Visuals and charts that can be used in one-on-one client meetings, saving time and enhancing the quality of communication.

Over time, this creates a library of tools to support both investment decisions and client communication — a compounding resource that grows more valuable with each session.
Risk-Free Guarantee
30-Day Refund Policy
Every Alpha subscription includes a 30-day refund policy. If it is not the right fit, cancel within the first 30 days and receive a full refund — no questions asked.
Immediate Access
Start your subscription today and gain immediate access to the live webinar at 1:30 PM ET, the Summer Scorecard framework, and all supporting materials.
Ongoing Value
The next several months are likely to provide important signals about growth, inflation, and market direction. Alpha gives you the framework to track and interpret those signals.
Join Alpha to attend today's session and access the full Summer Scorecard — a structured framework for navigating the most important macro question of the next 90 days.
Copyright 2026, Kinsale Trading LLC. All Rights Reserved. www.sevensreport.com